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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold Markets

Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?

AITechYearly6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Mainstream narrative shift 71.3%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

69

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 days ago

Stale
Apr 4, 25, 6:41 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Mainstream narrative shift71%

Rules

From the famous AI 2027 report:

Manifold Markets
  • https://ai-2027.com/
  • The authors state that predictions beyond 2026 are more uncertain, so I think keeping track on how the earlier predictions are going may tell us more about how the whole scenario works out.
  • Mainstream narrative shift refers to: "The mainstream narrative around AI has changed from “maybe the hype will blow over” to “guess this is the next big thing” "
  • Feel free to suggest questions.
  • I will avoid questions that are impossible to resolve accurately (e.g does OpenAI have a secret Agent-1 model aiding their AI R&D)

Related Markets

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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None in 2026: 69%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

$484.1
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

$364.7
Yes: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

$250
Yes: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

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Rules

From the famous AI 2027 report:

Manifold Markets
  • https://ai-2027.com/
  • The authors state that predictions beyond 2026 are more uncertain, so I think keeping track on how the earlier predictions are going may tell us more about how the whole scenario works out.
  • Mainstream narrative shift refers to: "The mainstream narrative around AI has changed from “maybe the hype will blow over” to “guess this is the next big thing” "
  • Feel free to suggest questions.
  • I will avoid questions that are impossible to resolve accurately (e.g does OpenAI have a secret Agent-1 model aiding their AI R&D)