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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

AITechYearly6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Google 14.6%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters

66

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Dec 8, 25, 10:01 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Google15%

Rules

Which organization will have the highest scoring AI model on the Epoch Capabilities Index at the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets

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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

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Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

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Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

$250
Yes: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

$104.7
Yes: 53.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Active in these topics

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Rules

Which organization will have the highest scoring AI model on the Epoch Capabilities Index at the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets