Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast170-175 64.9%-1.4ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
58
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.3 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jan 16, 26, 8:50 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market matches General Capabilities: Epoch Capabilities Index from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the highest ECI score reported by Epoch AI as of December 31, 2026.
- If Epoch revises the ECI methodology, re-normalizes scores, or updates the benchmark set, the resolver will use the most recent official ECI scores as reported by Epoch at year-end.
- If the scores change their meaning, the resolver may adjust them as deemed appropriate to be comparable to the current scores, or set this question's resolution to be ambiguous.