Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast170-175 62%+33.3ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+33.9 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 16, 26, 8:50 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market matches General Capabilities: Epoch Capabilities Index from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the highest ECI score reported by Epoch AI as of December 31, 2026.
- If Epoch revises the ECI methodology, re-normalizes scores, or updates the benchmark set, the resolver will use the most recent official ECI scores as reported by Epoch at year-end.
- If the scores change their meaning, the resolver may adjust them as deemed appropriate to be comparable to the current scores, or set this question's resolution to be ambiguous.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.1pt99%
- September 30-0.7pt98%
- September 25-0.3pt98%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $539.3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.2pt58.6%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt24%
- Grok+1.5pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.1M
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.2pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+34.9pt44%
- September 24+21.4pt23%
- September 17+21.1pt22%
+27 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+6.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $173.4K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703K
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices 170-175 at 62% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026? resolve?
- What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market matches General Capabilities: Epoch Capabilities Index from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.