Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.7%
Forecasters
337
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 23, 5:46 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
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PolymarketRules
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in every human dying by Jan 1st, 2030?
- Due to M$ not being worth anything if the world ends, people have an incentive to bet "NO" on questions about AI killing everyone even if they believe the correct answer is probably YES.
- Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.
- This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027.
- All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027.
- However, up until that point, any profit or loss you make on this market will be reflected in your current wealth; which means that purely profit-interested traders can make temporary profits on this market, and use them to fund other permanent bets that may be profitable; via correctly anticipating future shifts in prices among people who do bet their beliefs on this important question, buying low from them and selling high to them.