Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 94.5%
Forecasters
1,130
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 5, 23, 11:03 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 1:16 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.
- If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES.
- If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.
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