Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 83.8%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 14, 23, 8:31 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.
- There must be at least one human opponent for it to count.
- The competition must have some degree of officialness to it, like an organization putting on the competition. "I held a competition in my basement, and the AI won" doesn't count.
- I will use my best judgement to determine if a competition is "official" (I may make the criteria for officialness more precise based on suggestions in the comments).
- If I can't find any example of an AI winning a competition like this by 2030, resolves NO.
- If an AI has already won a competition like this, that counts for a YES resolution, too.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030? resolve?
- Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.