Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
76
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 24, 4:47 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation.
- This does not strictly have to be done by "wiping"; for example, a bidet-like technology would work, as long as it involves a technology widely agreed to be AI.
