Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86.3% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030? resolve?

Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.

How is Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This resolves to YES if I'm provided with credible video evidence of a robot controlled by an AI intentionally wiping the word "humanity" off of a whiteboard, chalkboard, or other wipeable writing surface.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+19.0pt95%
• December 15,+21.0pt94%
• November 30,+39.5pt93%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.8M

24h Vol

$344K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+4.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+6.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+16.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T27.9%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.3pt20.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.3pt17.3%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-2.9pt54.6%
• Gemini-0.3pt33.2%
• ChatGPT-1.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-6.4pt88.5%
• Anthropic+1.2pt8.3%
• OpenAI+1.4pt2.1%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31+1.6pt95%
• October 31+4.5pt36%
• October 29+8.0pt35%

+17 more outcomes

• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best AI this week