Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.4%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 19, 23, 3:47 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .
- It should resolve the same in all states of the world.
- In other words, any price discrepancy is intended to be an arbitrage opportunity.
- It is meant to highlight the absurdity of the position, and make whatever AI risk messaging is happening more expensive.
- [link preview]
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? resolve?
- Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .