IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 23, 11:41 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.
- If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A. This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.
- Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364
- Related markets: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e
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