Current community forecast
Yes 68.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 24, 3:16 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
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Option 'Yes' will be considered correct if:
- Within a short timeframe after AGI is achieved, an AI system demonstrates capabilities that significantly surpass the brightest human minds in every domain, from creativity to general wisdom, and from scientific discovery to social skills.
- There is a clear, identifiable leap from AGI to ASI without intermediate steps that require significant human intervention or additional breakthroughs in AI technology.
- Option 'No' will be considered correct if:
- There is a prolonged period after achieving AGI where AI development continues in incremental steps and does not immediately result in an ASI.
- The development of ASI involves additional breakthroughs or paradigm shifts in technology or theoretical understanding that are not direct extensions of AGI capabilities.