If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
AI
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Brakes hit 52%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 24, 24, 8:48 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
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PolymarketRules
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's market, Rob Bensinger organized the scenarios with a set of tags giving them a pretty ontology.
- This market resolves YES for the tags that are true of the world when AI has an okay outcome.
- This is great, but the options are long, dense, and partly overlapping, in a way that made it trickier for me to assign relative probabilities.
- To help with that, I made this graphic putting the options in order and assigning tags to clusters of related scenarios.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason??
- Manifold Markets prices Brakes hit at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason? resolve?
- If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2200.
- How is If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as: