If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
AI
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Brakes hit 52%Leader of 13 outcomes
Brakes hit 52%Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 24, 24, 8:48 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's market, Rob Bensinger organized the scenarios with a set of tags giving them a pretty ontology.
- This market resolves YES for the tags that are true of the world when AI has an okay outcome.
- This is great, but the options are long, dense, and partly overlapping, in a way that made it trickier for me to assign relative probabilities.
- To help with that, I made this graphic putting the options in order and assigning tags to clusters of related scenarios.
