[Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons??

Manifold Markets prices Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. at 47.5% as of October 28, 2026.

When does [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? resolve?

[Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2200.

How is [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.6pt95%
• December 15,+1.5pt93%
• November 30,-2.0pt87%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$6M

24h Vol

$124.4K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-2.0pt30.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.8pt22.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.6pt15.5%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-4.9pt55.9%
• Gemini+6.3pt34.2%
• ChatGPT+0.4pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+5.0pt98%
• Anthropic-4.5pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt96.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt93%

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• $1.5T–$1.75T+5.0pt21.6%
• <$1T-8.4pt21.6%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+1.8pt20.6%

+5 more outcomes

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?