Current community forecast
No 67%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 23, 5:21 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold Markets[Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
@/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence
- (Note that this is about the multiple-choice market where Eliezer chose the answers, not the free response one where anyone can add their own.)
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A? resolve?
- Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2200.
- How is Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: @/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence