Current community forecast
No 66.2%
Forecasters
349
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 23, 5:52 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?
Manifold MarketsWill the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030? (Every problem on which it's possible to do better than humanity at all, eg, not Tic-Tac-Toe or inverting hashes.)
- An artificial superintelligence like this would, according to some market participants' beliefs, probably kill everyone.
- This creates a market distortion because M$ is not worth anything if the world ends.
- Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.
- This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027.
- All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027.
