In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022??

Manifold Markets prices No at 85.5% as of October 28, 2026.

When does In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022? resolve?

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2028.

How is In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: [image]https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1620617483358212098?t=2bv5RVQsLz1S-e8KNB25tw&s=09

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+17.9pt48%
• Claude-17.3pt42.9%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt6.5%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.8M

24h Vol

$166.5K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.2pt95%
• December 15,+1.0pt93%
• November 30,-2.0pt87%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-5.0pt27.7%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.6pt23.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.7pt15.8%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+17.5pt53.6%
• Anthropic-18.0pt39.2%
• OpenAI-0.3pt5.2%

+12 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+4.7pt98%
• Anthropic-4.1pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• <$1T-7.5pt22%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+1.2pt20%
• $1.5T–$1.75T+1.9pt19%

+5 more outcomes

• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)