Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
One-OffTechAISociety & Culture2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 76.5%
Forecasters
220
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 24, 5:29 PM UTCMar 14, 29, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill “woke (topic)” be more popular in the US on Google Trends five years from now than today?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?
Manifold MarketsWhen will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsRules
François Chollet tweeted (2024-03-14) https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1767935813646716976
- Prediction: there will be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in five years than there are today.
- Will this be the case?
- Update 2025-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Full-Time Professional Software Engineers
- Counts refer exclusively to individuals who work as full-time professional software engineers (i.e. those writing code in languages such as Python, C, or JavaScript, among others).
- Part-time, hobbyist, or non-professional developers are not included.
