Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 60.1%
Forecasters
72
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 17, 23, 4:23 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.
- Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'.
- Set the search window from 2004 to present.
- Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES.
- If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom.
- [If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists.
