Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 98.2%
Forecasters
64
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 23, 2:28 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be public
Manifold MarketsParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRules
[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.
- An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate.
- (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)
