Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 98.2%
Forecasters
64
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 23, 2:28 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
KalshiRules
[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.
- An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate.
- (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
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- US test scores in Math in 2026?
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- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
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- Major news story in Sep 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? resolve?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: [tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.