Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
>=2030 69.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 24, 5:57 PM UTCJan 9, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Google, Amazon, Facebook each employ <2,000 human software engineers?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiFed rate hike by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market is necessarily slightly subjective.
- I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:
- The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
- The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
- Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).
- I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment??
- Manifold Markets prices >=2030 at 69% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment? resolve?
- When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment? is scheduled to resolve on January 9, 2030.
- How is When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is necessarily slightly subjective.