Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
>=2030 69.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
>=2030 69.2%Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 24, 5:57 PM UTCJan 9, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries finally re-reach their 2021 levels?
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PolymarketRules
This market is necessarily slightly subjective.
- I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:
- The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
- The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
- Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).
- I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.
