Current community forecast
No 83.3%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 24, 4:49 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States overtake China in PPP GDP by 2050?
Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiChina overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp
- If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from IMF.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp