Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 82.1%
No 82.1%Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleJun 22, 24, 4:49 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsElectricity generation per capita: Will China overtake the US by end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill India overtake South Africa in GDP per Capita by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp
- If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from IMF.