Current community forecast
No 67.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 26, 6:48 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of December 31, 2030, the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a China-headquartered entity achieves parity with or surpasses the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a US-headquartered entity.
- Resolution will be determined sequentially using the following sources:
- Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI): If Epoch AI is active and tracking capabilities as of December 31, 2030, this market resolves to YES if the highest-rated model developed by a China-headquartered organization has an ECI score equal to or higher than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization.
- LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard: If the ECI is unavailable, this market resolves to YES if the top model developed by a China-headquartered organization on the overall LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard has an Arena Elo rating equal to or higher than the top model developed by a US-headquartered organization as of December 31, 2030.
- Stanford AI Index / CSET Reports: If both of the above metrics are defunct, the market will resolve to YES if the closest Stanford AI Index Report (e.g., the 2031 report tracking 2030 progress) or research from Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) explicitly states that Chinese frontier models have matched or overtaken US frontier models in capability.
