Current community forecast
No 67.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 26, 6:48 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
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Manifold MarketsWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
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PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of December 31, 2030, the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a China-headquartered entity achieves parity with or surpasses the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a US-headquartered entity.
- Resolution will be determined sequentially using the following sources:
- Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI): If Epoch AI is active and tracking capabilities as of December 31, 2030, this market resolves to YES if the highest-rated model developed by a China-headquartered organization has an ECI score equal to or higher than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization.
- LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard: If the ECI is unavailable, this market resolves to YES if the top model developed by a China-headquartered organization on the overall LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard has an Arena Elo rating equal to or higher than the top model developed by a US-headquartered organization as of December 31, 2030.
- Stanford AI Index / CSET Reports: If both of the above metrics are defunct, the market will resolve to YES if the closest Stanford AI Index Report (e.g., the 2031 report tracking 2030 progress) or research from Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) explicitly states that Chinese frontier models have matched or overtaken US frontier models in capability.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $41.2K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C-0.5pt50%
- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
- 25°C-7.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.5K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $13.8K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-3.2pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? resolve?
- Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria