Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
InflationOne-OffEconomyForeign ExchangeChinaManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.8%
Forecasters
100
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 21, 23, 8:10 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This question will resolve as YES if China's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surpasses that of the United States before December 31, 2050, based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.
- The resolution will not take into account other economic indicators such as Gross National Product (GNP), Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), or other alternative measures of economic power.
- The determination of the nominal GDP of China and the United States will be based on the current market exchange rate, not adjusted for inflation or other factors.
- In the event of a significant discrepancy in economic data between the IMF and other reputable sources, the resolution will defer to the IMF figures.
