What are the current odds for Will we get AGI before China surpasses the U.S. as the world's largest economy??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59.5% as of October 26, 2026.

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Will we get AGI before China surpasses the U.S. as the world's largest economy?

EconomyOne-OffAI China

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 59.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Feb 26, 25, 12:53 PM UTCMar 5, 99, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.

Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Largest economy is largest nominal GDP, so not PPP adjusted.

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Will we get AGI before China surpasses the U.S. as the world's largest economy?

Will we get AGI before China surpasses the U.S. as the world's largest economy?

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US recession by end of 2026?

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

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South Africa unemployment rate in Q3

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Open markets

Recession this year?

US recession by end of 2026?

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

Unemployment in October

Recession in 2027?

South Africa unemployment rate in Q3