Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 25, 7:08 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
https://x.com/RyanFedasiuk/status/2003634067997409613?s=20
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China launches nine or more aircraft carriers by December 31, 2035. "Launch" is defined as the vessel having its official launch ceremony, not the date of the dry dock flooding or when it is commissioned into service.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese state media announcements.
- As of 2025, China has three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- A fourth carrier, the Type 004, has been under construction since 2024 and is expected to feature nuclear propulsion.