Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopolitics19yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 52.6%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 23, 1:20 AM UTCDec 31, 45, 3:59 PM UTC
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Commissioning is the formal entry into service of a ship, not the act of ordering its construction.
- Resolves YES if the US commissions a sixth Ford-class carrier.
- Resolves NO if the US formally commits not to construct and commission a sixth Ford-class carrier AND a US presidential election has taken place subsequent to that decision AND the decision is not reversed by the winner of that election (three months after swearing in)
- The NO criteria seem a bit over the top, but apart from applying 'by X year' instead, which I don't want to do, they may be the best choice.
