Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.5%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 10:20 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029.
- A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition.
- Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties.
- The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline.
- If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China become democratic before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will China become democratic before 2030? resolve?
- Will China become democratic before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will China become democratic before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria