Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.5%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 10:20 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029.
- A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition.
- Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties.
- The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline.
- If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.
