Will BRICS have a new member join or current member leave first?
Middle EastOne-OffRussia / UkraineChina2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastnew member joins 83.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 26, 8:57 PM UTCDec 11, 28, 9:22 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
resolves the named outcome first if a member of BRICS is no longer a member for any reason, before a the named outcome. resolves the named outcome if BRICS has a new member before a the named outcome.
- this is for full members. members as of market creation:
- Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Iran
- resolves according to wikipedia and major media consensus. saudi arabia is not currently considered a member
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will BRICS have a new member join or current member leave first??
- Manifold Markets prices new member joins at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will BRICS have a new member join or current member leave first? resolve?
- Will BRICS have a new member join or current member leave first? is scheduled to resolve on December 11, 2028.
- How is Will BRICS have a new member join or current member leave first? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves the named outcome first if a member of BRICS is no longer a member for any reason, before a the named outcome. resolves the named outcome if BRICS has a new member before a the named outcome.