KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.1% / 12.0%
Spread
3.9 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jul 29, 25, 2:00 PM UTCJan 8, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will BRICS have a new member join or current member leave first?
Manifold MarketsWill BRICS add a new member in 2026?
PolymarketWill a country leave BRICS in 2026?
PolymarketWill any ex-Nijisanji member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any ex-Hololive member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
If BRICS invites a new country to be a member before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027??
- Kalshi prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027? resolve?
- Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027.
- How is Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If BRICS invites a new country to be a member before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.