Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 3% or more and lose?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 56.2%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 26, 8:14 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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ForecastExRules
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 3.00% or more and loses.
- The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
