Will any US Senate candidate have 50.1% or more in the polling average and lose?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection13d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 8, 26, 7:40 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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ForecastExRules
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate has 50.1% or more of the vote and loses.
- The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
