Current community forecast
No 96.5%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 14, 26, 9:23 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?
KalshiWhich party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from on January 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?
KalshiRules
"Yes" if Rayner is Prime Minister on or before 1st December 2026, and "No" otherwise.
- Does not resolve "No" immediately if someone other than Rayner and Starmer becomes PM, since they may resign and be replaced by Rayner.
- Resolves "No" immediately if Rayner dies.
- Resolves "N/A" if the office of Prime Minister is abolished before December.
