Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Forecasters
79
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 26, 24, 9:59 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
