Current community forecast
No 84.7%
No 84.7%Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 22, 23, 2:22 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.
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Manifold MarketsRules
To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...
- If major media outlets are saying unemployment has risen to over 25% (I believe that was roughly how bad things got in the American Great Depression?) and unequivocally state that AI is the primary cause, then we got a winner!
