Current community forecast
No 81.2%
Forecasters
54
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 22, 23, 2:22 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRules
To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...
- If major media outlets are saying unemployment has risen to over 25% (I believe that was roughly how bad things got in the American Great Depression?) and unequivocally state that AI is the primary cause, then we got a winner!
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? resolve?
- Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...