What are the current odds for Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK??

Manifold Markets prices No at 85.5% as of October 30, 2026.

Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?

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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 85.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Stale

May 27, 25, 10:56 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves YES if undergraduate enrolment in the UK drops by 20% or more relative to the 2025 baseline:

Total undergraduate enrolment falls below 80% of the 2025 level, based on official data from HESA (Higher Education Statistics Agency) or a UK government source.
Crucially, the drop must be plausibly linked to AI.
This could include evidence that students are choosing AI learning alternatives, institutions are citing AI as a reason for declining enrolment, or official reports attribute part of the decline to the growing role of AI has in automating the economy.
The causal connection to AI does not need to be conclusive, but it must be reasonable and supported by documentation (e.g. policy papers, media reporting, or institutional statements).
Please feel free to ask questions if you’re unsure how to interpret this criterion when betting.