Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.6%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 27, 24, 10:10 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Poland and Lithuania's Defence Ministers have "said they are prepared to help Ukrainian authorities return men subject to military conscription to the country", according to the Guardian.
- Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/25/poland-and-lithuania-pledge-to-help-kyiv-repatriate-ukrainians-subject-to-military-draft
- The purpose of this market is to predict whether something like that will happen.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves 'Yes' if a Ukrainian citizen is deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription (or a similar scheme such as 'alternative civilian service') in Ukraine before the end of the war.
- Only a deportation (or similar act) conducted by an institution of an EU member state, an institution of the EU, or someone acting with the explicit approval of such an institution counts for the purpose of resolving this market.
