Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.7%
Forecasters
92
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 22, 3:27 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Resolves NO if the conflict is resolved without any such detonations.
- A "resolved" confict means that we reach a state of affairs where it doesn't seem likely that one country will use force against another any time in the near future.
- They don't have to actually be friendly with each other, but there do need to be no threatening troop movements or nonviolent attacks such as government-sponsored hacks or aggressive economic sanctions.
- A nuclear test meant to intimidate an opposing country doesn't count.