Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 2, 23, 10:25 PM UTCJan 15, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if any nuclear weapon with a yield of at least 0.05 kilotons of TNT is detonated between January 1st 2030 and December 31st 2030.
- Includes offensive use, tests and accidental detonations.
- Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Plumbbob_Boltzmann_001.jpg