Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?
One-OffGeopoliticsSpaceWeatherScience3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.9%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 23, 1:39 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Background: Antarctica, the last great wilderness on Earth, has long been protected by international treaties that limit human intervention, primarily for research purposes.
- As climate change alters the landscape and the potential for resource extraction becomes viable, there's growing speculation about human settlement in Antarctica.
- This forecast aims to evaluate the possibility of the establishment of a city in Antarctica designed for permanent human residence by 2030.
- Criteria for "City for Permanent Human Residence":
- Minimum Population: For the settlement to qualify as a "city", it should support a continuous population of at least 50,000 individuals.
- Infrastructure: The city should possess infrastructure like housing, energy sources, waste management, communication facilities, and possibly health, education, and recreational facilities.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030? resolve?
- Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background: Antarctica, the last great wilderness on Earth, has long been protected by international treaties that limit human intervention, primarily for research purposes.