Current community forecast
Zohran Mamdani 85%Leader of 39 outcomes
Forecasters
61
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 10:32 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Time's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketWill Time's 2026 Person of the Year have one human?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill TIME's 2026 Person of the Year be EXCLUSIVELY one person?
Manifold MarketsTIME Person of the Year 2026
FutuurRules
Resolves according to the shortlist released by TIME.
- If no shortlist is released, everything resolves no.
- Must be explicitly named as the headline.
- If ‘The Iranian People’ was on the shortlist, Iranians like the named outcome wouldn’t count.
- Even if they named him in the blurb about Iranian people.
- (Excludes Artemis|| , individual astronauts would resolve yes if Artemis || is named)
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist??
- Manifold Markets prices Zohran Mamdani at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist? resolve?
- Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to the shortlist released by TIME.