Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 8, 25, 9:48 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsAI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be Time's person of the year in 2025, 2026 or 2027?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketTIME Person of the Year 2026
FutuurRules
resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026? resolve?
- Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)