Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 1.2%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleJan 31, 26, 5:00 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes1%
Volume trend
$100Jul 142d of dataJul 15
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Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.