Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTechnocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised 32.9%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
230
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 23, 6:19 PM UTCNov 9, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
Manifold MarketsWill the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
An the named outcome includes troops from the West and some other geopolitical area - eg China, Middle East or Africa.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza??
- Manifold Markets prices Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised at 33% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza? resolve?
- After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza? is scheduled to resolve on November 9, 2027.
- How is After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An the named outcome includes troops from the West and some other geopolitical area - eg China, Middle East or Africa.