Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFuturama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues 34.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 30, 25, 4:25 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.
- Other versions of this question use far future dates; this one instead attempts to forecast the Metaculus opinion as of the end of 2027.
- This question will resolve PROB in proportion to the Metaculus forecast at that time.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20683)AI-Fizzle.
- In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
- AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
