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Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

SportsOne-OffChess124y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 22, 2026, 3:43 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

81

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 23 days ago

Stale

Jan 30, 24, 2:53 AMDec 31, 50, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

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Rules

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.