Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing??

Manifold Markets prices No at 81.7% as of October 17, 2026.

When does Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing? resolve?

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 3000.

How is Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902

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KALSHI

BTC price on Oct 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

• $80,500 or above98.5%
• $80,000 or above99.5%
• $80,250 or above98.5%

+77 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$1.1M

KALSHI

Where will it rain on Oct 17, 2026?

• New York City+46.0pt99.5%
• Lexington+65.0pt99.5%
• Trenton+30.0pt

POLYMARKET

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

• 360-379+8.7pt24.2%
• 340-359+2.2pt19.2%
• 380-399+3.5pt18.2%

+23 more outcomes

KALSHI

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 17, 2026?

• 62° to 63°+77.0pt86.5%
• 61° or below-77.0pt11%
• 64° to 65°+3.0pt

KALSHI

BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

• $72,000 or above97.5%
• $74,500 or above96.5%
• $73,500 or above97%

KALSHI

Google market share this week

• Above 18.9%+22.0pt99.5%
• Above 18.5%+12.0pt99.5%
• Above 18.7%+16.0pt

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