Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 24, 2026, 4:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecast
Democrats 84%
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 days ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 6:45 AMNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Republicans16%
Compare venues· Democrats
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 84% | — | — | — | 33 days ago | |
 PredictIt84% match · verified | — | 80% | — | — | — | 25 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Michigan?
6mo
80%
20%
1%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Mike Duggan wins as an independent, the market will resolve N/A.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Mike Duggan wins as an independent, the market will resolve N/A.