Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 1, 2026, 1:13 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastRepublicans 88%+1.0pt
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 days ago
StaleMay 9, 26, 5:50 PMNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Republicans88%
Compare venues· Republicans
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 88% | — | — | — | 26 days ago | |
 PredictIt90% match · verified | — | 86% | — | — | — | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Vermont?
10mo
86%
14%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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