🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (21 DONE)
GeopoliticsOne-OffSportsEsportsAI13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 10, 2026, 12:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastLeft 4 Dead 3 93.8%Leader of 104 outcomes
Forecasters
97
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 days ago
StaleFeb 28, 24, 6:53 PMJan 2, 40, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Physint (Kojima stealth game)66%
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README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
- 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
- 2nd event: 2% (happens next)
- 100th event: 100% (happens latest)
- Any games not released before Jan 1st 2040 will resolve 100% YES.
- Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For "Gears of War 6", the release of Gears of War: E-Day (the next mainline installment) will be treated as that answer's release, even though the title differs.