ποΈ2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE)
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBitcoin reaches 180K usd or more 98.2%Leader of 100 outcomes
Forecasters
41
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 26, 4:14 AM UTCJan 5, 27, 3:40 AM UTC
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README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
- 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
- 2nd event: 2% (happens next)
- 100th event: 100% (happens latest)
- Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.
- Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025).
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAIβs Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ποΈ2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE)?
- Manifold Markets prices Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does ποΈ2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE) resolve?
- ποΈ2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE) is scheduled to resolve on January 5, 2027.
- How is ποΈ2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: